TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 11:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second half of a college football game between Miami (FL) and Wake Forest. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory threshold that must be achieved by either team during the latter half of play, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the designated college football game. If Miami (FL) wins the second half by exceeding the specified point margin, the corresponding 'Miami (FL) wins 2H by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if Wake Forest achieves the required margin, the relevant 'Wake Forest wins 2H by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Markets remain active if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time; if play does not commence within this window, all markets resolve at a fair price. Only the second-half score difference determines outcomes, with no consideration for the first half or full-game result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to balance action and ensure profit, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Initial sportsbook odds may be influenced by public perception or biases, whereas this market tends to converge towards a more accurate probability as more information becomes available and more traders participate. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or news breaks that could impact the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the second-half spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring. Buyers are essentially betting that the spread will be as stated, while sellers are betting against it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more buyers there are for a particular spread, the higher the price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic interaction determines the current market price and reflects the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the second half of the Miami vs Wake Forest game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of their purchase, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the Miami or Wake Forest teams would likely cause significant shifts. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the style of play, could also affect trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, even public sentiment and large bets from influential traders on Kalshi can create momentum and drive price fluctuations in this market.