TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how decisively either team wins the first quarter of a football game between the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers. Each market corresponds to different point spreads, reflecting varying levels of victory margin for each team in that specific quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential at the end of the first quarter of the designated game between the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins the quarter by more points than the designated spread. Only points scored during the first quarter count, and the markets are independent of the full game's final result. Each market has a unique threshold for the point differential required for resolution, ranging from narrow margins to larger victories. The outcome is determined immediately after the first quarter ends, with no consideration for subsequent game events or adjustments.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional forecasts, but it is not guaranteed. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can provide a broader perspective on the likely outcome of the first quarter spread.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 1st quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers are essentially betting that the spread will be as indicated, while sellers are betting against it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving expectations of market participants. The current price represents the market’s best estimate of the spread at the end of the first quarter.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final 1st quarter spread of the game between the Dolphins and the 49ers will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by a trusted source for NFL scores. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread at the end of the first quarter.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Dolphins or the 49ers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could impact trading activity. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, though to a lesser extent. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market for the Dolphins-49ers 1st quarter spread.