TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:56 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either team wins the first half of an upcoming football game. Each outcome represents a different point margin threshold that determines whether the market settles as 'Yes' or 'No' based on the actual score difference at halftime.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers during the first half of their game scheduled for September 20, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team exceeds the specified point margin threshold defined in each individual market. Only points scored in the first half are considered for resolution, regardless of the final full-game result. The markets cover a range of margins from narrow victories (e.g., winning by more than 2.5 points) to dominant performances (e.g., winning by more than 20.5 points), allowing participants to speculate on varying degrees of competitive imbalance in the opening half.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure profit, factoring in a 'vig' or commission. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs about the game’s outcome. While sportsbooks may initially set a spread based on team statistics and expert analysis, the prediction market price adjusts dynamically as new information and opinions emerge, potentially offering a different perspective on the likely result of the first half.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting a 49ers first-half win, the price of those contracts increases, and the price of contracts predicting a Dolphins win or a closer game decreases. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the likely spread.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final first-half spread of the game between the Miami Dolphins and the San Francisco 49ers will be used to determine whether the 49ers won the first half by more than 9.5 points, as defined by the market. The result will be reported by official sports sources and verified to ensure accuracy, finalizing the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Dolphins or the 49ers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on expert analysis, could all contribute to changes in the market price leading up to the end of the first half.