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Mexico vs. South Africa - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Mexico vs. South Africa - First Team to Score

Volume:
$44,136

Mexico

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Mexico

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,748
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mexico

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,390
N/A
N/A
$5,624
Settled
Yes
polymarket

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,933
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,035
N/A
N/A
$5,043
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,555
N/A
N/A
$1,512
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on which team will score first in the Mexico vs. South Africa FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 11, 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer binary or ternary outcomes (Mexico, South Africa, or Neither), but they differ fundamentally in their scope: Polymarket explicitly limits resolution to the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time, while Kalshi includes the entire game including extra time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Temporal scope divergence: Polymarket restricts resolution to 90 minutes + stoppage time only, while Kalshi includes the entire match including extra time. Both platforms agree on primary resolution source (official governing body) but differ on the window of play that counts.Hero tip: The key risk occurs if the match is 0-0 after 90 minutes and goes to extra time. On Polymarket, this resolves to Neither. On Kalshi, the first goal in extra time determines the winner. Traders should note this asymmetry and adjust position sizing or hedge accordingly if the match remains scoreless through regulation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on first goal within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs explicitly excluded. If neither team scores in this window, resolves to Neither. Resolution source is official statistics from governing body or credible reporting consensus if not published within 2 hours.
  • Kalshi: Resolves on first goal during entire game including regulation, stoppage, and any extra time periods. Covers the full match duration. Resolution source is official FIFA World Cup records for the June 11, 2026 match.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Mexico and South Africa, scheduled for June 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Mexico" if Mexico are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "South Africa" if South Africa are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

If Mexico records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the Mexico vs South Africa professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If South Africa records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the Mexico vs South Africa professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If no team records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the Mexico vs South Africa professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the Mexico vs. South Africa first-goal market across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays the consensus probability that Mexico scores first, South Africa scores first, or neither team scores, alongside live volume and price movements. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain a cross-market view of how traders are pricing this outcome, revealing which team the prediction market favors and how conviction is shifting as the match approaches.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds, so prices reflect real-time supply and demand from traders worldwide. Traditional sportsbooks set odds with built-in margins and adjust based on liability. Prediction market odds often converge toward true probability as resolution approaches, while sportsbook odds may lag or diverge due to different risk models. Comparing both sources helps identify mispricings and sharper consensus on which team is favored to score first.

Team news—injuries to key forwards, defensive starters, or goalkeepers—can shift scoring expectations significantly. Lineup announcements and tactical formations revealed before kickoff often trigger sharp price moves. Recent form, head-to-head history, and venue conditions also influence trader sentiment. As match time approaches, late-breaking updates on weather, roster changes, or betting syndicate activity can cause rapid repricing. Live action during the match itself will ultimately determine the outcome, but pre-game catalysts drive most of the prediction market movement beforehand.