TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Mexico vs. South Africa
limitless
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Mexico vs. South Africa

Volume:
$40,091,030

Mexico

all

4 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Limitless

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 5:07 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mexico

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,147,185
N/A
N/A
$8,723,357
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mexico

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,300,919
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

Mexico

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
29.9¢
N/A
$19,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

MEX

View
N/A
N/A
—
$30,229
$813,230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,525,553
N/A
N/A
$9,243,074
Settled
No
polymarket

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,279,638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

RSA

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,475
$225,473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$4,690
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,197,626
N/A
N/A
$1,740,072
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Mexico vs. South Africa)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,433,105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,009
$137,581
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
99.5¢
N/A
$6,063
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Mexico versus South Africa FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 11, 2026. Across Limitless, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the aggregated consensus shows Mexico winning at 99.5%. Resolution is determined by the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Watch for any official announcements regarding match scheduling or cancellation prior to the June 11, 2026 kickoff, as these could materially affect settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory (all three outcomes resolve to YES simultaneously). Polymarket and Predict treat match cancellation as a Draw outcome, while Limitless treats no-result as Draw. Win markets (Mexico/South Africa) have consistent logic across Polymarket, Predict, and Limitless, but Kalshi's win markets are unresolvable due to the all-YES structure.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets for this event—the resolution logic is internally inconsistent. For Polymarket and Predict, note that a canceled match with no make-up game will resolve the Draw market to YES and win markets to NO. On Limitless, a no-result scenario by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC also resolves Draw to YES. Prioritize Polymarket or Predict for clarity; verify match completion status with FIFA.com within 2 hours of scheduled end time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three outcome markets (Tie, South Africa, Mexico) resolve to YES if their respective outcome occurs. This creates a logical impossibility where every possible match result triggers YES on all three markets simultaneously. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If South Africa wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Mexico wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Win markets (Mexico, South Africa) resolve NO if match is canceled with no make-up game. Draw market resolves YES if match is canceled with no make-up game. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (Draw); 'this market will resolve to No' (Win markets).
  • Predict: Identical to Polymarket. Win markets resolve NO on cancellation; Draw market resolves YES on cancellation. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (Draw).
  • Limitless: Win markets resolve NO if match is not completed with official result by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC. Draw market resolves YES if match is not completed with official result by the same deadline. Key Quote: 'If the club does not win or if the match is not completed with an official result by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC, the market will resolve to NO' (Win); 'if the match is not completed with an official result by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC... it will resolve to YES' (Draw).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Thursday, June 11, 2026 between Mexico and South Africa.

Kalshi

If Mexico wins the Mexico vs South Africa professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If South Africa wins the Mexico vs South Africa professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins the Mexico vs South Africa professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Thursday, June 11, 2026 between Mexico and South Africa.

Limitless

This market resolves to "YES" if the club named in the title is winning after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties) in the match scheduled for the date shown in the title. If the club does not win or if the match is not completed with an official result by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC, the market will resolve to "NO."

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often price outcomes differently than traditional sportsbooks because they operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks build in margins and adjust lines based on liability management, while prediction markets reflect pure supply and demand from traders betting real money. For Mexico vs. South Africa, comparing the consensus prediction market probability to major sportsbook lines can reveal value opportunities. Prediction markets typically update faster in response to breaking news, team updates, or injury reports, making them useful for spotting line movement before sportsbooks react.