TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Mexico vs. South Africa
Total volume:
$14,796
Volume 24h:
$2,606
23%
Liquidity:
$92,044
8%
Open interest:
$7,981
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Thursday, June 11, 2026 between Mexico and South Africa.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory (all three outcomes resolve to YES simultaneously). Polymarket and Predict treat match cancellation as a Draw outcome, while Limitless treats no-result as Draw. Win markets (Mexico/South Africa) have consistent logic across Polymarket, Predict, and Limitless, but Kalshi's win markets are unresolvable due to the all-YES structure.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets for this event—the resolution logic is internally inconsistent. For Polymarket and Predict, note that a canceled match with no make-up game will resolve the Draw market to YES and win markets to NO. On Limitless, a no-result scenario by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC also resolves Draw to YES. Prioritize Polymarket or Predict for clarity; verify match completion status with FIFA.com within 2 hours of scheduled end time.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three outcome markets (Tie, South Africa, Mexico) resolve to YES if their respective outcome occurs. This creates a logical impossibility where every possible match result triggers YES on all three markets simultaneously. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If South Africa wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Mexico wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Win markets (Mexico, South Africa) resolve NO if match is canceled with no make-up game. Draw market resolves YES if match is canceled with no make-up game. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (Draw); 'this market will resolve to No' (Win markets).
- Predict: Identical to Polymarket. Win markets resolve NO on cancellation; Draw market resolves YES on cancellation. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (Draw).
- Limitless: Win markets resolve NO if match is not completed with official result by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC. Draw market resolves YES if match is not completed with official result by the same deadline. Key Quote: 'If the club does not win or if the match is not completed with an official result by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC, the market will resolve to NO' (Win); 'if the match is not completed with an official result by July 11, 2026, 19:00 UTC... it will resolve to YES' (Draw).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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