TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 5, 11:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the exact final score of the Mexico vs England FIFA World Cup soccer match during regulation time. On Kalshi, England winning 3-2 stands at 50.0%, while a 3-3 draw is at 26.0%. The market resolves based on the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, as determined by FIFA. Watch for the match kickoff on July 5, 2026, which will determine the regulation time outcome.
This event covers all possible regulation time correct score outcomes for the Mexico vs England FIFA World Cup match. Resolution is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded from consideration. Each specific scoreline—whether a draw, England victory, or Mexico victory—has a corresponding market that resolves to Yes if that exact score is achieved. The resolution is based solely on the official match result as recorded by FIFA at the conclusion of regulation time.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market may show different implied probabilities than major sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or when retail traders and professionals disagree on the likelihood of specific scorelines. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus is strongest and where outlier opportunities may exist.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for each possible correct score outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of any given scoreline reflects the most recent trade and the depth of buy and sell orders at that level. As match conditions change—injuries, weather, team news—traders adjust their positions, moving prices to reflect updated expectations. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome popularity, with heavily favored scorelines typically tighter and less-likely results wider.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the Mexico vs England match concludes and the final regulation-time score is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources covering the event, ensuring accuracy before payouts are distributed. Traders who correctly predicted the exact scoreline receive their winnings based on the odds at which they entered their position. Early resolution is not possible; the market remains open for trading until the match is complete and the result is official.
Team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—can significantly reprrice scoreline probabilities. Pre-match analysis from credible sports analysts and expert predictions may influence trader positioning. Head-to-head records, recent form, and home-field advantage assessments all feed into market pricing. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and betting-market activity at major sportsbooks can also trigger repricing. As match day draws closer, late-breaking developments and final team confirmations typically drive the most volatile price movements in this market.