TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 6:43 AM EST
Opinion
This market resolves based on the goal differential between Mexico and Ecuador in their match scheduled for 2026-07-01 01:00 UTC. Each spread threshold listed below resolves independently. Only regular time counts. If postponed, this market remains open until played; if cancelled with no make-up, all positions resolve 50-50.
This market resolves based on the goal differential between Mexico and Ecuador in their match scheduled for 2026-07-01 01:00 UTC. Each spread threshold listed below resolves independently. Only regular time counts. If postponed, this market remains open until played; if cancelled with no make-up, all positions resolve 50-50.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different pricing mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets derive prices from continuous trader activity and real-money incentives. This market aggregates the collective judgment of participants betting their own capital, which can sometimes offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook lines. Comparing the two can reveal where public opinion on the outcome differs from professional bookmaker assessments.
On Opinion, this market is priced through continuous trading, where participants buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the balance between buyers and sellers at any given moment. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, and the price updates in real time. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the probability estimates you see are live snapshots of what active traders believe will happen, rather than static lines set by a central operator.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the final score and any applicable match rules at the time of play. Until that date, traders can continue to buy and sell shares based on their expectations. Resolution happens automatically once the event is confirmed, and all positions settle according to the actual result.
Team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—can significantly shift market prices as traders reassess each side's chances. Recent form, head-to-head history, and any external factors affecting player availability will influence sentiment. Weather conditions on match day, last-minute roster announcements, and pre-match commentary from analysts may also trigger trading activity. As the fixture approaches, accumulating evidence about team readiness and confidence typically drives price movement, so monitoring sports news and team updates is valuable for tracking this market's evolution.