TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia
Volume:
$6,222,085
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Men's Ice Hockey Semifinals matchup between the USA and Slovakia scheduled for February 20, 2026 at 3:10 PM EST during the Winter Olympics. Both platforms are betting on the binary outcome of which team wins the game, including overtime and shootout resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes (USA win and Slovakia win) resolve identically to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and unable to differentiate between outcomes. This is a data integrity failure in market structure.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi version of this market. The resolution logic is broken - it will resolve Yes regardless of which team wins, making it impossible to profit from correct predictions. Use Polymarket exclusively, which has proper binary resolution (USA vs Slovakia) and handles edge cases like postponement and cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure resolves to Yes for both USA victory and Slovakia victory, creating a logical tautology. This makes the market unable to differentiate between outcomes. Key Quote: Both conditional statements conclude with 'then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Binary outcome resolution with USA win resolving to USA and Slovakia win resolving to Slovakia. Includes proper edge case handling for postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Key Quote: 'If USA win, the market will resolve to USA. If Slovakia win, the market will resolve to Slovakia.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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