TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Megan Thee Stallion will perform specific songs live at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show. Each song has its own criteria for what counts as a performance, with a shared deadline of October 19, 2026.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Megan Thee Stallion performs any of several specified songs live at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show before October 19, 2026. A valid performance requires her physical presence on stage, actively singing, rapping, vocalizing recognizable lyrics or melody, or playing an instrument that performs the recognizable melody, riff, or musical structure of the song. Pre-recorded audio or video playback without simultaneous live contribution does not qualify. Medleys, mashups, and partial performances are acceptable, as are guest appearances where she actively participates. If the event is postponed to a date before the deadline, the market remains open for the rescheduled event. However, if the event is cancelled entirely, rescheduled after the deadline, or Megan Thee Stallion withdraws, the market resolves to No. Soundchecks and rehearsals do not count toward a valid performance.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi. These odds often differ from initial analyst forecasts or polls, as the market incorporates new information and adjusts expectations dynamically. While pre-event polls may indicate popular opinions about which songs are likely to be performed, this market represents a financial commitment to those beliefs, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what will actually happen. It’s common to see the market odds diverge from initial predictions as more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a particular song will be performed. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and exchange contracts, the prices converge to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each song being included in the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show performance. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on an official setlist released by Victoria’s Secret or verified reporting from reputable news sources covering the fashion show. The contracts will pay out based on whether each song was, in fact, performed during the show. The specific details of the performance – such as length or arrangement – are not relevant to the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the odds in this market. Official announcements from Victoria’s Secret regarding performers or the show’s theme would be significant catalysts. Leaks of the setlist, even unconfirmed, could also cause substantial shifts in trading activity. Media coverage focusing on potential performers or song choices could also impact the market. Finally, any news related to the artists themselves – such as new album releases or tour announcements – might influence traders' perceptions and move the odds accordingly.
