TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Megan Moroney will perform specific songs live at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show. Each song has its own market, and performance requires her active, live participation on stage.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Megan Moroney performs any of several specified songs live at the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show before October 19, 2026. A valid performance requires her physical presence on stage, actively singing, rapping, vocalizing recognizable lyrics or melody, or playing an instrument that performs the recognizable melody, riff, or musical structure of the song. Pre-recorded audio or video playback without simultaneous live contribution does not count. Medleys, mashups, and partial performances are acceptable, as are guest appearances where she actively participates. If the event is postponed to a date before the deadline, the market remains open for the rescheduled event. If the event is cancelled entirely, rescheduled after the deadline, or Moroney withdraws, all markets resolve to No. Soundchecks and rehearsals do not count toward resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for the songs likely to be performed at the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show, as comprehensive public forecasts are limited. However, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of perspectives and potentially uncovering insights that individual analysts might miss. If pre-show polls or expert predictions emerge, comparing them to the probabilities reflected in this market will reveal whether the crowd is aligned with conventional wisdom or anticipates a different outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the probability of each song being performed. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and influence the spread between the buy and sell prices.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the setlist from the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially released list of songs performed during the show. Any disputes regarding the official setlist will be addressed by reviewing documentation from the event organizers and trusted media sources covering the performance. The market will then determine which contracts payout based on whether the corresponding song was included in the official setlist.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Official announcements regarding performers scheduled to appear at the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show will be major catalysts, as they provide clues about the musical style and potential song choices. Leaks of the setlist, even unconfirmed, could also cause substantial price movements. Social media buzz and fan speculation surrounding potential performances could also influence trading activity, and any news regarding the show’s production or creative direction may shift expectations and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.
