TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 4:19 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming college football game between Maryland and UConn. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that either team must achieve to satisfy the condition.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the Maryland vs UConn college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. For markets where Maryland must win by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points), the market resolves to Yes if Maryland's first-quarter score exceeds UConn's by more than the stated threshold. Conversely, for markets where UConn must win by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points), the market resolves to Yes if UConn's first-quarter score exceeds Maryland's by more than the stated threshold. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward these resolutions. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official first-quarter result. If the game fails to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders who believe UConn will win by more than the spread buy contracts, driving the price up, while those who believe Maryland will cover or win buy contracts representing a smaller spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news, analysis, and each other's actions.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final first-quarter spread of the Maryland vs UConn game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by sports data providers and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing spreads will not. The exact payout amount is determined by the contract price at the time of resolution.
Several signals could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Maryland or UConn teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's style of play, could also move the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could affect trader sentiment. Finally, even public perception and betting trends observed elsewhere can influence trading activity and shift the price of contracts in this market.