TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 7:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Penn State will win their college football game against Marshall by more than 5.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Penn State winning by over 5.5 points, with resolution determined by the final score of the Marshall vs Penn St. game as defined in the resolution source. Participants can trade on their expectations of the game’s outcome up until the resolution date; keep a close watch on the game itself, scheduled for September 5, 2026, as the final score will determine market settlement and the resolution on September 6, 2026.
All markets resolve based on Penn State's point differential in the Marshall vs Penn State college football game scheduled for Sep 5, 2026. For each market, if Penn State wins by more than the specified point margin, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.
Compared to traditional sportsbook lines, prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different risk assessment because they are driven by trader sentiment rather than set by oddsmakers. While sportsbooks may adjust lines based on public betting patterns and historical data, this market prices in real-time based on how participants evaluate team performance, injuries, and game conditions.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the majority view. The market uses a logarithmic market scoring rule to incentivize accurate forecasting, and liquidity is influenced by the volume of $970,087. Prices adjust dynamically as new information about team readiness or game conditions emerges.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread reported by major sports news outlets and official score sources will determine which side of the market is the winner, closing all positions based on the confirmed result.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, and shifting weather conditions could all move this market as the game nears. Also, any significant performance trends in recent matchups or updates from team announcements may cause traders to re-evaluate their positions, impacting the odds and volume leading up to Sep 6, 2026.