TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 4:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Marshall and Penn State. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of points by which either team must win the first quarter to resolve as 'Yes'.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the Marshall vs Penn State college football game scheduled for Sep 5, 2026. For markets where Penn State must win by a specified margin (e.g., over 23.5, 19.5, etc.), if Penn State's lead at the end of the first quarter exceeds that margin, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, for markets where Marshall must win by a specified margin (e.g., over 2.5, 3.5, etc.), if Marshall's lead at the end of the first quarter exceeds that margin, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward these markets. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than sportsbook odds, which are typically set by a smaller team of professionals. While sportsbooks consider factors like team statistics and injuries, this market incorporates a broader range of information and sentiment, including less quantifiable factors. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts leading up to the game. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Marshall will cover a certain spread, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly accurate forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the Marshall vs Penn State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and the market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual result. All open contracts for incorrect spreads will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any significant news regarding injuries to key players on either Marshall or Penn State would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the playing conditions, could also move the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in expectations and drive price changes in this market.