TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 9, 5:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct outcome markets evaluating different goal-differential scenarios in a Brazilian Serie C soccer match between Maringa and Amazonas scheduled for August 9, 2026. All markets resolve based solely on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from consideration. Market One pays out if Maringa wins by more than 2.5 goals, Market Two if Maringa wins by more than 1.5 goals, Market Three if Amazonas wins by more than 1.5 goals, and Market Four if Amazonas wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each market operates independently, meaning a single match result could potentially trigger multiple market resolutions depending on the exact goal differential. The governing body’s official score is the sole determinant, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced view of team performance and public sentiment than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set fixed spreads based on analytics and risk management, prediction markets let participants bet directly on their beliefs, which can lead to tighter or more volatile pricing depending on recent news, injuries, or form.
This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread is calculated based on the official match result, and the market settles accordingly, closing all positions at that point.
In the coming weeks, several signals could shift this market. Key performances in earlier matches, player injuries or lineup changes, and shifts in team momentum all play a role. Media coverage and expert analysis may also sway trader sentiment. As the match date nears, any last-minute updates — like weather conditions or tactical announcements — could cause rapid movements in the odds on Kalshi.