TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 31, 12:10 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the total number of games in the Mariano Navone versus Novak Djokovic match at the 2026 US Open Men’s Singles Round of 128 will exceed 48.5 games. On Kalshi, the leading outcome, Over 48.5 games, currently holds a probability of 99.0%. The resolution is based on official match results from the 2026 US Open. The key catalyst to watch will be the match itself, scheduled to conclude by August 31, 2026, which will determine the final game count and market settlement.
The event centers on predicting whether the total number of completed games in the Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic match at the 2026 US Open Men Singles Round of 128 will exceed specified thresholds of 28.5, 33.5, or 38.5 games. Each threshold represents a separate market, all resolving based on the final, completed game count of the full match. If the match does not commence due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other pre-start cancellations, all markets resolve to a fair price. Postponements or delays keep markets open until the rescheduled match concludes, with settlement occurring within two weeks of completion. In the event of a player retirement, markets that can be definitively settled based on games already played will do so, while any unresolved markets will settle at a Fair Market Price, determined solely by the Exchange. The Exchange explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders directly set the odds through buying and selling contracts, which determines the current implied probability for each outcome. The top outcome shown reflects the aggregate sentiment of participants on that venue alone. Market depth and recent trading volumes influence price stability, and any shifts in trader confidence can quickly adjust these odds. This decentralized pricing model captures the specific outlook of Kalshi’s user base without input from external sources.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final game count will be compared against the defined over/under threshold to determine which side is correct. No internal platform mechanisms or external validations beyond publicly available data are involved in confirming the result.
Injuries, weather delays, or changes in player form leading up to the match could shift trader sentiment and move this market. Media reports, practice updates, or performance trends may cause participants to adjust their bets, impacting the odds. Additionally, any significant betting volume spikes on Kalshi—especially if they reflect new public information—can cause rapid price changes as traders react to emerging perceptions of likely game length.