TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
March Unemployment Rate
Description
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES for 23 specific unemployment rate values (3.3% through 5.5%), while Polymarket includes a range-based market (≥4.7%) and point-estimate markets that do not align with Kalshi's discrete set. This creates logical contradictions: for example, if March 2026 unemployment is 3.2%, Kalshi resolves NO on all markets (no matching condition), but Polymarket's ≤3.9% market would resolve YES—yet neither platform's rules acknowledge or reconcile this outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. If you trade on Kalshi expecting a specific rate (e.g., 4.5%), you will resolve YES; but on Polymarket, the same 4.5% rate triggers YES on the 4.5% exact market AND the ≥4.7% market (which resolves NO at 4.5%). Conversely, if unemployment is 3.2%, Kalshi has no YES outcome while Polymarket's ≤3.9% resolves YES. Arbitrage or hedge across platforms only after confirming which rate you expect and mapping it to each platform's outcome matrix.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses a closed discrete set of 23 exact unemployment rates (3.3%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%, 4.7%, 4.8%, 4.9%, 5.0%, 5.1%, 5.2%, 5.3%, 5.4%, 5.5%). Each market resolves YES if the unemployment rate is exactly one of these values, and NO for all other outcomes. There is no explicit NO condition; any rate outside this set leaves all Kalshi markets unresolved or implicitly NO. Key quote: 'If the Unemployment rate is exactly [rate] in Mar 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses a mixed logic combining range-based thresholds (≥4.7%, ≤3.9%) and exact point estimates (4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, 4.5%, 4.6%). This creates overlapping outcomes: for example, 4.5% triggers YES on both the exact 4.5% market and the ≥4.7% market (which resolves NO at 4.5%, creating a logical contradiction). Polymarket also covers rates below 3.3% (via ≤3.9%) and above 5.5% (implicitly NO on all markets), whereas Kalshi's discrete set ends at 5.5%. Key quote: 'Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?' and 'Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.