TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES for 18 specific CPI values ranging from -0.2% to 1.5%, creating a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for nearly all realistic outcomes. Polymarket uses a binary threshold approach (specific point values or ranges), fundamentally different from Kalshi's multi-outcome YES resolution. These platforms cannot produce consistent outcomes for the same underlying CPI data.Hero Tip:
Avoid betting on this group across both platforms simultaneously. On Kalshi, the market is effectively a near-certainty YES bet since CPI almost always falls within the -0.2% to 1.5% range; on Polymarket, outcomes depend on which specific threshold question you select (0.4%, 0.6%, 0.8%+, 0.3%-, 0.5%, or 0.7%). Your profit/loss will diverge sharply depending on platform choice and the actual March 2026 CPI print.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if CPI month-over-month matches any of 18 predefined values (-0.2%, -0.1%, 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.8%, 0.9%, 1.0%, 1.1%, 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.4%, or 1.5%). This creates a logical flaw: the market resolves YES for nearly all plausible CPI outcomes, leaving only extreme values (below -0.2% or above 1.5%) to resolve NO. The resolution rules state 'If the CPI month-over-month is exactly [VALUE] in Mar 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' for each of the 18 conditions.Polymarket:
Outlier: Offers six separate binary markets, each tied to a specific CPI threshold or point value: 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.8% or more, 0.3% or less, 0.5%, and 0.7%. Each market resolves independently based on whether the actual BLS-reported CPI (rounded to one decimal place) matches or exceeds the stated threshold. The resolution source is explicitly the official BLS Consumer Price Index report for March 2026, released April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
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