March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

Critical divergence points:

• Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines 23 independent binary markets, each resolving YES if CPI exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from >1.8% to >4.0%) and NO otherwise. For example, if actual CPI is 2.5%, markets 1–9 (thresholds 1.8%–2.4%) resolve YES, while markets 10–23 (thresholds 2.5%–4.0%) resolve NO. The structure is a threshold ladder where multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously. Key quote: 'If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than [X]% in the twelve months ending March 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.'
• Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket defines 10 categorical/range-based markets using mixed operators (≤, ≥, =). Markets include range queries (e.g., '≤2.6%', '≥3.4%') and exact-value queries (e.g., '=2.8%', '=3.0%'). Only one market per outcome category resolves YES; the others resolve NO. For example, if actual CPI is 2.8%, the market 'Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?' resolves YES, while '≤2.6%' and '≥3.4%' resolve NO. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.'