TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)
Volume:
$2,983,175
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets assess whether the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase by specific percentage thresholds over the 12-month period ending March 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The resolution uses the official BLS monthly CPI report (scheduled April 10, 2026), rounded to one decimal place, establishing a series of granular inflation outcome brackets across both platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi defines 23 separate binary markets each with a different CPI threshold (>1.8% through >4.0%), while Polymarket defines 10 markets with mixed binary and categorical outcomes using both inequality operators (≤, ≥, =). For any given March 2026 CPI outcome, the two platforms will resolve their respective markets to contradictory conclusions.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group are fungible. On Kalshi, you are betting on a specific threshold bracket (e.g., CPI >2.5%); on Polymarket, you may be betting on a range (e.g., CPI ≤2.6%) or exact value (e.g., CPI =2.8%). A single CPI print will trigger YES on some Kalshi markets and NO on others, while Polymarket's categorical structure means only one market per outcome category resolves YES. Verify which platform's market structure matches your intended exposure before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines 23 independent binary markets, each resolving YES if CPI exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from >1.8% to >4.0%) and NO otherwise. For example, if actual CPI is 2.5%, markets 1–9 (thresholds 1.8%–2.4%) resolve YES, while markets 10–23 (thresholds 2.5%–4.0%) resolve NO. The structure is a threshold ladder where multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously. Key quote: 'If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than [X]% in the twelve months ending March 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket defines 10 categorical/range-based markets using mixed operators (≤, ≥, =). Markets include range queries (e.g., '≤2.6%', '≥3.4%') and exact-value queries (e.g., '=2.8%', '=3.0%'). Only one market per outcome category resolves YES; the others resolve NO. For example, if actual CPI is 2.8%, the market 'Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March?' resolves YES, while '≤2.6%' and '≥3.4%' resolve NO. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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