TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
March Inflation US - Annual
Description
These markets measure the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12-month period ending March 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The official BLS CPI report is scheduled for release on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET and will be reported to one decimal place precision (e.g., 2.9%). This represents the headline inflation rate that the Federal Reserve and policymakers monitor to guide monetary policy decisions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on exact CPI core year-over-year percentages with binary YES/NO outcomes, while Polymarket resolves on the actual reported annual inflation percentage (to one decimal place) with multiple outcome-specific markets. Kalshi treats any of 16 specific values as YES, whereas Polymarket asks whether inflation will equal or fall within specific thresholds, creating fundamentally different resolution mechanics.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you win if the March 2026 CPI core YoY matches any of 16 predefined values (2.2% through 3.7%); if you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on the exact reported inflation figure or a range. Polymarket's precision is one decimal place per BLS reporting, so outcomes like 2.45% would round to 2.5% on Polymarket but may not match Kalshi's exact thresholds. Verify which platform's resolution method aligns with your inflation forecast.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES if CPI core year-over-year in March 2026 equals any of 16 specific values (2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.8%, 2.9%, 3.0%, 3.1%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.7%), with a single binary YES/NO outcome for the entire market group. Quote: 'If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly [value] in Mar 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers multiple separate markets, each asking whether annual inflation (before seasonal adjustment, per BLS) will equal or meet specific thresholds (2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.7%, ≥2.8%, ≤2.0%), with resolution to one decimal place as reported by the official BLS monthly CPI news release. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report... reported inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%).'
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