TOTAL VOLUME:

$101.9b

24H VOL:

$119,575,967

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,024,173,950

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,176,087,693

185,125

Markets across

18,843

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,297

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

Polymarket:

44%

VS.

Kalshi:

56%

BETA

Science and Technology

Entertainment

Economics

March Inflation US - Annual

Name: March Inflation US - Annual
Start: 2025-12-15T15:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z

Volume:

$3,381,794

≥2.8% 100%

Exactly 3.2% 98%

Exactly 2.7% 56%

Closed: Apr 9, 8:00 PM EST

Polymarket

View

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

title

trade

chance

price

spread

liquidity

volume

volume24pers

volume7pers

openInterest

endDate

unifiedStatus

≥2.8%

View

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,900,362

N/A

0d 0h 0m

Yes

Exactly 3.2%

View

98%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$327

N/A

$327

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.7%

View

56%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$4,311

N/A

$2,554

0d 0h 0m

2.7%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$188,599

N/A

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.6%

View

38%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$9,371

N/A

$5,350

0d 0h 0m

2.6%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$176,981

N/A

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.8%

View

13%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$9,799

N/A

$5,467

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 3.3%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$60

N/A

$60

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 3.6%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$50

N/A

$50

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 3.4%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$50

N/A

$50

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 3.5%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$10

N/A

$10

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 3.1%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$63

N/A

$63

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 3.7%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$9,973

N/A

$73

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.5%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,443

N/A

$477

0d 0h 0m

2.5%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$205,962

N/A

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 3.0%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$1,053

N/A

$1,053

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.3%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$72

N/A

$72

0d 0h 0m

2.3%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$239,086

N/A

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.2%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$52

N/A

$52

0d 0h 0m

2.2%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$107,932

N/A

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.9%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$360

N/A

$352

0d 0h 0m

Exactly 2.4%

View

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

—

N/A

$20

N/A

$20

0d 0h 0m

2.4%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$208,605

N/A

0d 0h 0m

≤2.0%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$213,922

N/A

0d 0h 0m

2.1%

View

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$103,332

N/A

0d 0h 0m

Total markets: 25

Description

These markets measure the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12-month period ending March 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The official BLS CPI report is scheduled for release on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET and will be reported to one decimal place precision (e.g., 2.9%). This represents the headline inflation rate that the Federal Reserve and policymakers monitor to guide monetary policy decisions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves on exact CPI core year-over-year percentages with binary YES/NO outcomes, while Polymarket resolves on the actual reported annual inflation percentage (to one decimal place) with multiple outcome-specific markets. Kalshi treats any of 16 specific values as YES, whereas Polymarket asks whether inflation will equal or fall within specific thresholds, creating fundamentally different resolution mechanics.Hero tip: If you trade on Kalshi, you win if the March 2026 CPI core YoY matches any of 16 predefined values (2.2% through 3.7%); if you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on the exact reported inflation figure or a range. Polymarket's precision is one decimal place per BLS reporting, so outcomes like 2.45% would round to 2.5% on Polymarket but may not match Kalshi's exact thresholds. Verify which platform's resolution method aligns with your inflation forecast.

Critical divergence points:

Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves YES if CPI core year-over-year in March 2026 equals any of 16 specific values (2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.8%, 2.9%, 3.0%, 3.1%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.7%), with a single binary YES/NO outcome for the entire market group. Quote: 'If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly [value] in Mar 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers multiple separate markets, each asking whether annual inflation (before seasonal adjustment, per BLS) will equal or meet specific thresholds (2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.7%, ≥2.8%, ≤2.0%), with resolution to one decimal place as reported by the official BLS monthly CPI news release. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report... reported inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%).'

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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March Inflation US - Annual

Markets

≥2.8%

Exactly 3.2%

Exactly 2.7%

2.7%

Exactly 2.6%

2.6%

Exactly 2.8%

Exactly 3.3%

Exactly 3.6%

Exactly 3.4%

Exactly 3.5%

Exactly 3.1%

Exactly 3.7%

Exactly 2.5%

2.5%

Exactly 3.0%

Exactly 2.3%

2.3%

Exactly 2.2%

2.2%

Exactly 2.9%

Exactly 2.4%

2.4%

≤2.0%

2.1%

Description

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Critical divergence points:

Related events

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?