TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 11, 5:25 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of the second set in a professional tennis match between Marc-Andrea Huesler and Edas Butvilas during the 2026 ATP Gstaad Qualification Round 1 on July 12. The winner of set 2 determines the market resolution.
The market resolves based on which player wins set 2 in the Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Edas Butvilas match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are settled at Fair Market Price at the Exchange's discretion.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different pricing mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets derive prices from continuous trader activity and collective forecasting. This market aggregates real-time beliefs from many participants, which can lead to sharper or more efficient pricing than traditional sportsbooks on specific outcomes. Comparing the two can reveal where public sentiment on the set winner differs from professional oddsmakers' assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders; as new information emerges or match conditions change, traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. You can place limit or market orders to enter or exit your position at any time before the market closes, with pricing determined by supply and demand rather than a fixed odds formula.
This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the second set of the Huesler vs Butvilas match concludes. The outcome is determined by verifying the official set result against credible public sources covering professional tennis. Your position will settle based on which player actually wins Set 2, with payouts reflecting the final verified result. Check the market details closer to the event date for any updates on timing or resolution procedures.
Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Player form and recent match results leading up to the event will influence trader expectations. Injury reports, court surface conditions, head-to-head records, and pre-match analysis from tennis experts can all trigger price movements. Weather conditions on match day, momentum swings during the first set, and real-time performance in early games of Set 2 itself may cause sharp repricing. Traders continuously incorporate new information, so watching for these catalysts helps you anticipate market moves.