TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC
Volume:
$3,678,804
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three linked prediction markets on the English Premier League match between Manchester United FC and Aston Villa FC scheduled for March 15, 2026. The markets track the final outcome (Manchester United win, draw, or Aston Villa win) within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation and postponement handling differs between platforms. Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation clause, while Polymarket specifies that canceled matches resolve to No for win/loss markets but Yes for draw markets. Postponed matches remain open on Polymarket until completion; Kalshi's postponement logic is unstated.Hero Tip:
Monitor Premier League official channels for any match postponement or cancellation. If the match is canceled without rescheduling, expect Polymarket draw market to resolve Yes while win/loss markets resolve No. Kalshi's resolution path in a cancellation scenario is unclear and may require manual settlement review. Traders holding positions across both platforms should be aware of this asymmetry.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Treats all three outcomes (Manchester United win, draw, Aston Villa win) as Yes-resolving events. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. Resolution scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Key Quote: If [outcome] wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with outcome-specific resolution. Win markets (Manchester United, Aston Villa) resolve to No if canceled with no make-up game; draw market resolves to Yes if canceled. Postponed matches remain open until completion. Primary resolution source: official Premier League statistics or credible reporting if not published within 2 hours. Key Quote: If game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No (win/loss) or Yes (draw).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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