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402,751

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2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

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61%

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Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas - Toss Match Double
polymarket
kalshi

What is the toss and match result of San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas?

Volume:
$5,239,425

San Francisco Unicorns

 - Kalshi

San Francisco Unicorns - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 1:10 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

San Francisco Unicorns

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,320,684
N/A
N/A
$515,724
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Seattle Orcas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,918,686
N/A
N/A
$715,108
Settled
No
polymarket

SAN

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

SEA

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the San Francisco Unicorns will win their Major League Cricket match against the Seattle Orcas scheduled for June 26, 2026. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi shows 100.0% probability for a Unicorns victory. Resolution is determined by the official match result as recorded by Major League Cricket. Watch for the match kickoff on June 26, 2026 at 9:30 PM EDT, which will determine the final outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves on match outcome alone (binary: either team wins = Yes). Polymarket requires both toss and match to be won by the same team; any mismatch or no-winner scenario resolves to Draw. These are distinct market structures with different payoff profiles.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets. Kalshi offers pure match-winner exposure. Polymarket offers a compound bet on toss-match correlation. Polymarket's Draw outcome creates asymmetric risk; factor in tie probability and toss-match independence when pricing.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary match-winner market. Resolves Yes if Seattle Orcas wins OR San Francisco Unicorns wins the match. No Draw outcome. Quote: 'If Seattle Orcas wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If San Francisco Unicorns wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Compound toss-match market with three outcomes (SF Wins, Seattle Wins, Draw). Resolves Yes only if one team wins both toss and match. All other scenarios (toss-match mismatch, no winner, cancellation, tie without tiebreak) resolve to Draw. Quote: 'The outcome corresponding to San Francisco Unicorns will be considered correct if San Francisco Unicorns is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases...the market will resolve to Draw.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between San Francisco Unicorns and Seattle Orcas scheduled for 2026-06-26 in Major League Cricket. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to San Francisco Unicorns will be considered correct if San Francisco Unicorns is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Seattle Orcas will be considered correct if Seattle Orcas is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases - including where the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded - the market will resolve to "Draw". DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, Super Over, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a match winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the tiebreak winner will be considered the match winner for this market. If the match ends tied with no tiebreak used or available, no team will be considered to have won the match and the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without an official match winner being declared, the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.

Kalshi

This market covers the men's professional Major League Cricket match between San Francisco Unicorns and Seattle Orcas originally scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 9:30 PM EDT. The market resolves based on which team wins. If the match ends in a tie, draw, no result, abandonment, or cancellation with no official winner declared, all markets resolve to $0.50. In forfeit, disqualification, or concession scenarios: if occurring before the match begins, all markets resolve to $0.50; if occurring after play has begun and the governing body declares an official winner, the market resolves accordingly. If play begins but insufficient play occurs to determine an official result, all markets resolve to $0.50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed sportsbook lines. Instead of a bookmaker setting odds, traders buy and sell shares that reflect their belief in each outcome. This mechanism often produces tighter, more efficient pricing because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings. Sportsbooks, by contrast, build in margins and adjust lines to balance liability. For cricket events, prediction market odds can diverge significantly from traditional sportsbook lines, especially when one platform attracts specialized knowledge or higher volume than the other.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Both platforms host independent order books and trader bases, so pricing can reflect different information sets, risk appetites, and liquidity conditions at any moment. Kalshi and Polymarket may also enforce different market rules, fee structures, or position limits, which influence how aggressively traders commit capital. Geographic and demographic differences in their user bases can introduce regional bias or expertise gaps. These factors mean the same toss outcome may trade at materially different odds across venues, creating arbitrage opportunities for alert traders monitoring both simultaneously.

Team roster announcements, injury updates, or weather forecasts can shift trader sentiment if they suggest one side has a strategic advantage at the toss. Venue conditions, historical toss win rates for each franchise, and captain preferences all feed into pricing. If either team's recent form or morale changes materially, traders may reprice their positions. Additionally, large trades or sudden volume spikes on either platform can trigger momentum moves as other participants react to perceived new information. Monitor official MLC communications and sports news for catalysts that reshape the probability landscape.