TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv
kalshi
polymarket

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv

Volume:
$240,412

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 3:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$127,806
N/A
N/A
$75,078
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,998
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Maccabi Tel-Aviv (-1.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hapoel Tel-Aviv

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100,129
N/A
N/A
$67,857
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 171.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a professional Israeli Super League basketball game between Maccabi Tel-Aviv and Hapoel Tel-Aviv scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 1:50 PM EDT. Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are tracking the outcome of this single match, with different resolution mechanics across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction: both possible outcomes (Hapoel win and Maccabi win) resolve to Yes, making the No position mathematically impossible to win. This is a data integrity failure that renders the market unresolvable as intended.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is fundamentally broken and should not be traded. The Yes position is guaranteed to win regardless of the actual game result. Polymarket's market is the only properly structured version. Avoid Kalshi entirely pending correction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Both outcomes (Hapoel win and Maccabi win) resolve to Yes. This creates a tautology where the market always resolves Yes, eliminating any meaningful No position. Quote: If Hapoel wins = Yes; If Maccabi wins = Yes.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning team name (Maccabi Tel-Aviv or Hapoel Tel-Aviv). Properly structured binary outcome with cancellation fallback to 50-50 split. Quote: If Maccabi win, resolve to Maccabi Tel-Aviv; If Hapoel win, resolve to Hapoel Tel-Aviv.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming Super League (Israel) game, scheduled for June 16 at 1:50PM ET: If the Maccabi Tel-Aviv win, the market will resolve to "Maccabi Tel-Aviv". If the Hapoel Tel-Aviv win, the market will resolve to "Hapoel Tel-Aviv". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on the winner of the Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv professional Israeli Super League basketball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 1:50 PM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and will close after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the rescheduled date falls within two weeks of the original date. Should the game be cancelled and not played, or if rescheduling extends beyond two weeks from the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with established resolution procedures.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and profit margin, while prediction markets reflect aggregated trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge from major sportsbooks due to different liquidity pools, regulatory frameworks, and user bases. Comparing these sources helps identify mispricing opportunities and understand how professional versus retail traders assess the matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Both platforms host the same event, but pricing gaps emerge from distinct order flow, user demographics, and market depth. Kalshi and Polymarket attract different trader profiles—some prefer one platform's interface, fee structure, or regulatory standing. Liquidity concentration, timing of large trades, and how each platform handles order matching can push prices apart temporarily. These differences create arbitrage opportunities and reflect the broader fragmentation of prediction market infrastructure.

Key catalysts include team roster announcements, injury reports, recent form and head-to-head records, and any tactical changes disclosed before kickoff. Media coverage and expert analysis often shift trader sentiment in the days leading up to the match. Weather conditions, venue factors, and historical derby dynamics can also influence pricing. Social media momentum and large trades on either platform may trigger rapid repricing as new money enters or exits positions.