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Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC
kalshi
polymarket

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC

Volume:
$71,823

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

 - Kalshi

Maccabi Tel-Aviv - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 9:50 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maccabi Tel-Aviv

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,157
N/A
N/A
$19,848
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hapoel Holon BC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,738
N/A
N/A
$29,480
Settled
No
polymarket

Maccabi Tel-Aviv (-17.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 191.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a professional Israeli Super League basketball game between Maccabi Tel-Aviv and Hapoel Holon BC scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 8:00 AM EDT. The markets resolve based on which team wins the game, with provisions for postponement or cancellation.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes (Maccabi win and Hapoel win) resolve to Yes, making the market mathematically unresolvable. This is a data integrity failure that prevents proper settlement.Hero tip: Avoid trading the Kalshi version entirely. The market cannot be settled fairly because every game outcome triggers a Yes resolution. Trade only on Polymarket, which correctly maps outcomes to distinct resolution values.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Both win conditions resolve to Yes. Maccabi Tel-Aviv win = Yes; Hapoel Holon BC win = Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where the market always resolves Yes regardless of actual game outcome.
  • Polymarket: Binary outcome mapping: Maccabi Tel-Aviv win resolves to 'Maccabi Tel-Aviv'; Hapoel Holon BC win resolves to 'Hapoel Holon BC'. Includes explicit edge case handling: postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming Super League (Israel) game, scheduled for June 12 at 8:00AM ET: If the Maccabi Tel-Aviv win, the market will resolve to "Maccabi Tel-Aviv". If the Hapoel Holon BC win, the market will resolve to "Hapoel Holon BC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the official winner declared by the league. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two weeks. If the game is cancelled and not played, or rescheduled more than two weeks out, the market resolves to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect pure trader belief through continuous price discovery. This market aggregates thousands of independent forecasts, often revealing sharper probability estimates than traditional betting lines. Comparing this market's implied odds to major sportsbook spreads can highlight value opportunities or consensus shifts. Prediction markets typically update faster during breaking news or roster changes, making them useful for spotting early market moves.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket may emphasize institutional participation, while Kalshi draws retail volume, leading to distinct risk premiums. Order-book depth, settlement rule clarity, and platform UI also influence how quickly prices converge. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but brief divergences persist due to withdrawal delays and platform-specific friction costs. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings before they close.