TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 22, 5:41 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Lanik and Daniil Varaksa in the M25 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Lanik' if Tomas Lanik advances against Daniil Varaksa. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Varaksa' if Daniil Varaksa advances against Tomas Lanik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Lanik and Daniil Varaksa in the M25 Sharm ElSheikh, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Lanik' if Tomas Lanik advances against Daniil Varaksa. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Varaksa' if Daniil Varaksa advances against Tomas Lanik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs. If there's a significant discrepancy, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both venues. However, it's important to remember that prediction markets are dynamic and odds can change rapidly based on new information and trading activity.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will rise. This creates a dynamic pricing system driven by supply and demand, and the market's overall assessment of the event.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on the official result of the M25 Sharm ElSheikh tournament, specifically the completion of the match between Tomas Lanik and Daniil Varaksa. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner and settle the market accordingly. Traders should monitor official tournament updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding the players' form, potential injuries, or changes in playing conditions could shift the odds. Unexpected results in other matches within the M25 Sharm ElSheikh tournament might also impact perceptions of each player's chances. Furthermore, significant trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in market sentiment, leading to price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves.