TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 6:35 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Pietro Orlando Fellin and Paul Jubb in the M25 Sharm ElSheikh, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pietro Orlando Fellin' if Pietro Orlando Fellin advances against Paul Jubb. This market will resolve to 'Paul Jubb' if Paul Jubb advances against Pietro Orlando Fellin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Pietro Orlando Fellin and Paul Jubb in the M25 Sharm ElSheikh, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pietro Orlando Fellin' if Pietro Orlando Fellin advances against Paul Jubb. This market will resolve to 'Paul Jubb' if Paul Jubb advances against Pietro Orlando Fellin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to information, or simply the dynamics of how each venue operates. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new developments than sportsbooks.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Orlando Fellin vs Jubb match. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s efficiency is driven by the collective intelligence of participants, constantly adjusting the price based on new information and evolving sentiment. The current top outcome, as indicated by share price, is the one with the highest implied probability.
This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Orlando Fellin vs Jubb match, as reported by recognized tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final share price at the time of resolution, while those holding shares in losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 2, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to the Orlando Fellin vs Jubb match might also shift perceptions of player momentum. Even seemingly minor details, such as weather forecasts or court surface reports, could contribute to price fluctuations. Increased trading volume, driven by breaking news or influential traders, is another signal to watch for, as it can accelerate price movements.