TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 22, 8:25 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Gonzalez Fernandez and Giulio Perego in the M25 Setubal, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mario Gonzalez Fernandez' if Mario Gonzalez Fernandez advances against Giulio Perego. This market will resolve to 'Giulio Perego' if Giulio Perego advances against Mario Gonzalez Fernandez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Gonzalez Fernandez and Giulio Perego in the M25 Setubal, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mario Gonzalez Fernandez' if Mario Gonzalez Fernandez advances against Giulio Perego. This market will resolve to 'Giulio Perego' if Giulio Perego advances against Mario Gonzalez Fernandez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the event, the odds on Polymarket will adjust accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a large amount of volume is traded, as information asymmetry plays a role in both venues.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event happening. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought for a particular outcome, the higher its price, and therefore the greater the implied probability. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants trading on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Setubal tennis match between Mario Gonzalez Fernandez and Giulio Perego. The platform will look to established tennis authorities to determine the winner and settle the market accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated rankings could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in tennis performance, could also impact the odds. A large volume of trading activity initiated by informed traders could also cause significant price movements, reflecting new information or a change in overall market perception.