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OPEN INTEREST:
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406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
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Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 1:07 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Sanhui Shin and Kaede Katayama in the M25 Sapporo, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sanhui Shin' if Sanhui Shin advances against Kaede Katayama. This market will resolve to 'Kaede Katayama' if Kaede Katayama advances against Sanhui Shin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Sanhui Shin and Kaede Katayama in the M25 Sapporo, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sanhui Shin' if Sanhui Shin advances against Kaede Katayama. This market will resolve to 'Kaede Katayama' if Kaede Katayama advances against Sanhui Shin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds to ensure profitability, which can skew the implied probabilities. This market, being driven by the collective wisdom of traders, can sometimes offer more accurate probabilities, especially when there's strong public disagreement with sportsbook lines. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful benchmark for comparison, highlighting potential value opportunities within this market.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. The market's price is therefore determined by supply and demand, with higher demand for shares in a particular outcome driving up its price and increasing its implied probability.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Sanhui Shin vs Kaede Katayama match as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute funds to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 15, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions impacting the match could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in prior matches for either Sanhui Shin or Kaede Katayama could also lead to significant price movements. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, though the market is ultimately driven by trader actions and their assessment of these signals.