TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 9:33 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Dessi and Filippo Alfano in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Dessi' if Marco Dessi advances against Filippo Alfano. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Alfano' if Filippo Alfano advances against Marco Dessi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Dessi and Filippo Alfano in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Dessi' if Marco Dessi advances against Filippo Alfano. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Alfano' if Filippo Alfano advances against Marco Dessi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, but can be influenced by factors like public betting patterns or house biases. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own informed opinions, leading to prices that may diverge from those found at sportsbooks. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information is incorporated.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the market price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s expectation of the likelihood of a particular result in the Marco Dessi vs Filippo Alfano match, and is driven entirely by supply and demand among traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula match between Marco Dessi and Filippo Alfano. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding the players' form, potential injuries, or changes in playing conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket itself can cause price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how the market evolves as the event draws closer and potentially identifying opportunities.