TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 6:08 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Filippo Francesco Garbero and Matteo Mura in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Francesco Garbero' if Filippo Francesco Garbero advances against Matteo Mura. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Mura' if Matteo Mura advances against Filippo Francesco Garbero. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Filippo Francesco Garbero and Matteo Mura in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Filippo Francesco Garbero' if Filippo Francesco Garbero advances against Matteo Mura. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Mura' if Matteo Mura advances against Filippo Francesco Garbero. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, being driven by the wisdom of the crowd, tends to be more efficient and may reflect more accurate probabilities, though discrepancies can occur. It’s common to see prediction markets react faster to new information and adjust odds more dynamically than sportsbooks, especially as the event approaches. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of expected outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for one outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all traders involved in the Garbero vs Mura match.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Garbero vs Mura match, as declared by the governing tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against established sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the players’ preparation or strategy could also have an impact. Furthermore, major upsets in other related tennis matches might influence perceptions of player capabilities. Public opinion and analysis from sports commentators could also contribute to price movements, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions regarding the Garbero vs Mura match.