TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 6:55 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniele Minighini and Matteo Mesaglio in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniele Minighini' if Daniele Minighini advances against Matteo Mesaglio. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Mesaglio' if Matteo Mesaglio advances against Daniele Minighini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniele Minighini and Matteo Mesaglio in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniele Minighini' if Daniele Minighini advances against Matteo Mesaglio. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Mesaglio' if Matteo Mesaglio advances against Daniele Minighini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market’s odds are determined by individuals willing to put their capital at risk. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly in events where public perception differs from expert opinion. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information or changing circumstances than sportsbooks, as traders continuously adjust their positions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Minighini vs Mesaglio match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards what the crowd believes is the most likely result. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the chances of each player winning, and traders can use this information to make informed decisions about whether to buy or sell shares.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula match between Daniele Minighini and Matteo Mesaglio. The platform will verify the winner based on publicly available sources, such as official tournament results and reporting from recognized sports news outlets. Traders will then be paid out based on their holdings in the winning outcome share.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about strategy or team composition could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, major upsets in related matches or tournaments might cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Overall, any information that alters the perceived likelihood of either Daniele Minighini or Matteo Mesaglio winning will likely cause movement in this market.