TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 7, 12:28 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between mehdi tahiri alaoui and Sam Kydd Baumgartner in the M25 Rabat, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'mehdi tahiri alaoui' if mehdi tahiri alaoui advances against Sam Kydd Baumgartner. This market will resolve to 'Sam Kydd Baumgartner' if Sam Kydd Baumgartner advances against mehdi tahiri alaoui. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between mehdi tahiri alaoui and Sam Kydd Baumgartner in the M25 Rabat, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'mehdi tahiri alaoui' if mehdi tahiri alaoui advances against Sam Kydd Baumgartner. This market will resolve to 'Sam Kydd Baumgartner' if Sam Kydd Baumgartner advances against mehdi tahiri alaoui. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and their own risk assessment, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply a larger sample size of opinions represented in the prediction market. It’s common to see this market converge with sportsbook odds as the event approaches, but significant differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of each share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the probability rises accordingly. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Rabat tennis match, determining which player, either mehdi tahiri alaoui or Sam Kydd Baumgartner, emerges as the victor. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to Sep 14, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could all impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected upsets in earlier rounds of the tournament, or strong performances by either player in other matches, could also drive price movements. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on opportunities as they arise within this market.