TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 3:53 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Alibek Kachmazov and Shaoyun Liu in the M25 Guiyang, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alibek Kachmazov' if Alibek Kachmazov advances against Shaoyun Liu. This market will resolve to 'Shaoyun Liu' if Shaoyun Liu advances against Alibek Kachmazov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alibek Kachmazov and Shaoyun Liu in the M25 Guiyang, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alibek Kachmazov' if Alibek Kachmazov advances against Shaoyun Liu. This market will resolve to 'Shaoyun Liu' if Shaoyun Liu advances against Alibek Kachmazov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs and adjust prices based on new information. If sportsbook odds significantly diverge from those seen here, it could indicate a disagreement between professional oddsmakers and the prediction market participants. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms and may appeal to different types of bettors.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of the Kachmazov vs Liu fight, and the price of each share reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or opinions.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Alibek Kachmazov vs Shaoyun Liu fight, as determined by the relevant governing body for the M25 Guiyang event. The market will settle to 100% for the winning fighter, and 0% for the losing fighter. Any draw or no-contest result will be handled according to Polymarket’s market rules.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 22, 2026. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all shift market sentiment. Unexpected betting patterns or large volume trades on Polymarket could also indicate new information or a change in confidence. Furthermore, any updates on the fighters’ physical condition or tactical approaches leading up to the fight could lead to significant price movements in this market.