TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 5:35 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Vavassori and Marat Salbiev in the M15 Tsaghkadzor, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 16, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Vavassori' if Matteo Vavassori advances against Marat Salbiev. This market will resolve to 'Marat Salbiev' if Marat Salbiev advances against Matteo Vavassori. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Vavassori and Marat Salbiev in the M15 Tsaghkadzor, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 16, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Vavassori' if Matteo Vavassori advances against Marat Salbiev. This market will resolve to 'Marat Salbiev' if Marat Salbiev advances against Matteo Vavassori. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and public betting patterns, this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, where traders directly express their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, risk assessments, or simply varying opinions among participants. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, particularly in response to breaking news or late-developing insights regarding the players.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for one outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment among traders.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Tsaghkadzor match between Matteo Vavassori and Marat Salbiev. The platform will rely on widely available and trustworthy sources to determine the winner, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement of the market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when the market will be finalized.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match statistics could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player form, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact the odds. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could signal a change in expectations, causing a significant price movement in this market. Monitoring tennis news and social media for relevant updates is advisable.