TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 10:16 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Dragos Nicolae Madaras and Francesco Ferrari in the M15 Telavi, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dragos Nicolae Madaras' if Dragos Nicolae Madaras advances against Francesco Ferrari. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Ferrari' if Francesco Ferrari advances against Dragos Nicolae Madaras. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Dragos Nicolae Madaras and Francesco Ferrari in the M15 Telavi, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dragos Nicolae Madaras' if Dragos Nicolae Madaras advances against Francesco Ferrari. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Ferrari' if Francesco Ferrari advances against Dragos Nicolae Madaras. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe one outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Polymarket will adjust accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective intelligence of the prediction market participants.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Madaras vs Ferrari match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment. The current implied probabilities are determined solely by trading activity on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Telavi match between Dragos Nicolae Madaras and Francesco Ferrari. The platform will identify the winner, or if a draw occurs, that will be the resolved outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result. It’s important to monitor reliable sports news sources around the resolution date for confirmation.
Several signals could influence this market before its resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries to either Dragos Nicolae Madaras or Francesco Ferrari, or changes in playing conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also have an impact. Furthermore, major upsets in other related tournaments or matches might lead traders to reassess their probabilities. Monitoring tennis news and social media for updates on both players will be key to understanding potential market movements leading up to Oct 5, 2026.