TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 10:02 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Nik Mikovic and Arian Barbic in the M15 Sibenik, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nik Mikovic' if Nik Mikovic advances against Arian Barbic. This market will resolve to 'Arian Barbic' if Arian Barbic advances against Nik Mikovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Nik Mikovic and Arian Barbic in the M15 Sibenik, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nik Mikovic' if Nik Mikovic advances against Arian Barbic. This market will resolve to 'Arian Barbic' if Arian Barbic advances against Nik Mikovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the implied probability on Polymarket and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that market participants believe the sportsbook is mispricing the event, or that they have access to information not yet reflected in the sportsbook's lines. It’s important to consider both when forming your own assessment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of the Mikovic vs Barbic match, and the price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more information becomes available and traders update their beliefs, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time view of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Sibenik match between Nik Mikovic and Arian Barbic. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result. Traders should monitor news sources for official confirmation of the match result as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule, or even commentary from analysts offering strong opinions on the likely winner, could also cause movement. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket itself can create short-term price fluctuations, as traders react to perceived advantages or disadvantages. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.