TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 7:15 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between William Nolan and Ewen Lumsden in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 16, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'William Nolan' if William Nolan advances against Ewen Lumsden. This market will resolve to 'Ewen Lumsden' if Ewen Lumsden advances against William Nolan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between William Nolan and Ewen Lumsden in the M15 Monastir, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 16, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'William Nolan' if William Nolan advances against Ewen Lumsden. This market will resolve to 'Ewen Lumsden' if Ewen Lumsden advances against William Nolan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals with varying levels of knowledge. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders to find value, but it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. As more traders buy shares in a specific outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants trading on Polymarket, offering a dynamic assessment of the match’s potential results.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the William Nolan versus Ewen Lumsden tennis match in Monastir. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner of the match and settle the market accordingly. Traders should monitor official tournament results to understand how this market will be finalized, as that information will be used to determine payouts.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches within the tournament could also lead to reassessments of player capabilities and affect the perceived probability of different outcomes. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a shift in expectations, causing the market to react accordingly. Monitoring tennis news and observing trading patterns will be key to understanding potential movements.