TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 4:17 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Arjun Rathi and Sebastian Heinrich in the M15 Monastir, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arjun Rathi' if Arjun Rathi advances against Sebastian Heinrich. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Heinrich' if Sebastian Heinrich advances against Arjun Rathi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arjun Rathi and Sebastian Heinrich in the M15 Monastir, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arjun Rathi' if Arjun Rathi advances against Sebastian Heinrich. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Heinrich' if Sebastian Heinrich advances against Arjun Rathi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. As more shares are purchased for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, with the platform ensuring that the total value of all shares adds up to 100%. This dynamic pricing system allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and changing sentiment surrounding the Monastir tennis match.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Monastir tennis match between Arjun Rathi and Sebastian Heinrich, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on this official result, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result of the match.
Several factors could influence the trading activity and price movement in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or unexpected performance in earlier matches could significantly shift the probabilities. Updates on player form, head-to-head records, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, large volume trades on Polymarket themselves can create momentum and drive price changes, as traders react to the actions of others. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 5, 2026.