TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 8:29 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Maximilian Figl and Rafael Giotis in the M15 Melilla, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maximilian Figl' if Maximilian Figl advances against Rafael Giotis. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Giotis' if Rafael Giotis advances against Maximilian Figl. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Maximilian Figl and Rafael Giotis in the M15 Melilla, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 15, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maximilian Figl' if Maximilian Figl advances against Rafael Giotis. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Giotis' if Rafael Giotis advances against Maximilian Figl. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant amount of money flows towards a particular outcome, the price will adjust accordingly, potentially signaling information not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook odds. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments or access to unique information among market participants, providing a potentially valuable comparative signal.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Melilla tennis match. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a specific outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective intelligence of those participating, making it a dynamic indicator of expectations for the match. This contrasts with fixed-odds betting where prices are set by a bookmaker.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Melilla tennis match between Maximilian Figl and Rafael Giotis, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts to shareholders accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to understand the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also have an impact. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term price movements. Monitoring tennis news sources and observing trading volume on Polymarket will be key to understanding potential catalysts that could move this market before the match concludes.