TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 6:46 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Ryan Nijboer and Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento in the M15 Madrid, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ryan Nijboer' if Ryan Nijboer advances against Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento. This market will resolve to 'Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento' if Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento advances against Ryan Nijboer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Ryan Nijboer and Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento in the M15 Madrid, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ryan Nijboer' if Ryan Nijboer advances against Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento. This market will resolve to 'Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento' if Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento advances against Ryan Nijboer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective insights of numerous traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of the prediction market as new information becomes available. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or shifts in sentiment than traditional betting venues, though the final outcome will be verified against credible public sources.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Nijboer vs Alvarez Sarmiento match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the winner of the match and determine the corresponding payout for shares held in the winning outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when and how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment could all trigger movement. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to this one, or even commentary from tennis analysts, might also impact trader behavior. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning could lead to changes in share prices and overall volume in this market.