TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 10:04 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael De Alba and Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN in the M15 Madrid, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael De Alba' if Rafael De Alba advances against Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN. This market will resolve to 'Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN' if Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN advances against Rafael De Alba. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael De Alba and Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN in the M15 Madrid, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael De Alba' if Rafael De Alba advances against Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN. This market will resolve to 'Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN' if Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN advances against Rafael De Alba. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment changes. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the expected outcome of the Madrid tennis match and highlight areas where the market diverges from conventional wisdom.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe in a particular outcome, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on the platform, offering a unique perspective on the Madrid tennis match.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Madrid tennis match between Rafael De Alba and Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN. The platform will verify the result against widely available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market prices at the time of resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the players’ strategies or coaching changes might also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, could drive trading volume and alter the probabilities associated with each potential outcome of the Madrid tennis match.