TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 7:27 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Michiel De Krom and Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN in the M15 Madrid, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michiel De Krom' if Michiel De Krom advances against Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN. This market will resolve to 'Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN' if Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN advances against Michiel De Krom. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Michiel De Krom and Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN in the M15 Madrid, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michiel De Krom' if Michiel De Krom advances against Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN. This market will resolve to 'Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN' if Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN advances against Michiel De Krom. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance risk and attract bets. This market, however, allows individuals to express their own predictions and influence the odds through their trading activity. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of a decentralized market. Comparing the odds can reveal where the crowd believes sportsbooks may be over or underestimating the probability of a particular outcome in the Madrid tennis match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Madrid tennis match. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic process ensures that the market price continuously adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment among participants. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Michiel De Krom vs Martin VAN DER MEERSCHEN tennis match in Madrid. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to determine the winning outcome. Participants will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result. It’s important to note that the resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, relying on publicly available information to ensure a fair outcome for all traders.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to the event might also shift sentiment. Furthermore, large trading volumes from informed participants could signal new information or a change in outlook. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also play a role, although the market is ultimately driven by the collective predictions of traders on Polymarket.