TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 10:31 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Nagel and Timeo Trufelli in the M15 Forbach, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Nagel' if Arthur Nagel advances against Timeo Trufelli. This market will resolve to 'Timeo Trufelli' if Timeo Trufelli advances against Arthur Nagel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Nagel and Timeo Trufelli in the M15 Forbach, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Nagel' if Arthur Nagel advances against Timeo Trufelli. This market will resolve to 'Timeo Trufelli' if Timeo Trufelli advances against Arthur Nagel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure profit, incorporating a 'vig' or commission. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in the participants involved. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information than sportsbooks, as traders can instantly adjust their positions.
This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Forbach tennis match between Arthur Nagel and Timeo Trufelli. The platform will verify the winner based on publicly available match results. The outcome will be determined by the official score reported by the tournament organizers and verified against credible public sources, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions (like weather), or even updates on player form could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to either Arthur Nagel or Timeo Trufelli, such as a sudden illness or a change in coaching staff, could also cause significant price movement. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning has the potential to move this market substantially before Oct 2, 2026.