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$134.1b
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2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 3:36 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Bacaloni and Aditya Kothari in the M15 Baku, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Bacaloni' if Andrea Bacaloni advances against Aditya Kothari. This market will resolve to 'Aditya Kothari' if Aditya Kothari advances against Andrea Bacaloni. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Bacaloni and Aditya Kothari in the M15 Baku, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Bacaloni' if Andrea Bacaloni advances against Aditya Kothari. This market will resolve to 'Aditya Kothari' if Aditya Kothari advances against Andrea Bacaloni. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market aims to represent the true probability as assessed by traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply variations in market participants. If sportsbooks heavily favor one player, this market might show a more nuanced view, or conversely, if sportsbooks see the match as a toss-up, this market could lean towards a specific outcome based on trader conviction. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed betting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular player, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of victory. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the match. This creates a dynamic and efficient price discovery process.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Andrea Bacaloni versus Aditya Kothari tennis match in Baku. The platform will verify the winner through official tournament results and reporting. It’s important to note that the outcome is determined by the actual event result, not by any subjective assessment or external source beyond established sports reporting. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to this one might also affect trader sentiment. Furthermore, analysis of head-to-head records, recent performance data, and even weather forecasts for Baku could all play a role in driving price movements. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in betting patterns, will also be a key signal to watch as Sep 28, 2026 approaches.