TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
This market refers to the tennis match between Alexey Aleshchev and Kerem Yilmaz in the M15 Baku, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexey Aleshchev' if Alexey Aleshchev advances against Kerem Yilmaz. This market will resolve to 'Kerem Yilmaz' if Kerem Yilmaz advances against Alexey Aleshchev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Alexey Aleshchev and Kerem Yilmaz in the M15 Baku, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexey Aleshchev' if Alexey Aleshchev advances against Kerem Yilmaz. This market will resolve to 'Kerem Yilmaz' if Kerem Yilmaz advances against Alexey Aleshchev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the wisdom of the crowd on Polymarket, aims to reflect the true probability of each outcome, though discrepancies can and do occur. These differences can arise from varying levels of information, biases among bettors, or simply differing opinions on player form and potential. Comparing these odds can highlight where the crowd believes there's value or mispricing relative to the sportsbook.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome – in this case, either Alexey Aleshchev or Kerem Yilmaz winning the match. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment leading up to the match.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M15 Baku tennis match between Alexey Aleshchev and Kerem Yilmaz. The platform will verify the winner according to official tournament results, ensuring a transparent and accurate determination of the market's outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final share price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on player form could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in earlier rounds of the tournament, or even weather forecasts impacting the match schedule, could also cause fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed bettors could indicate a shift in expectations, potentially driving price changes. Monitoring tennis news and following expert analysis will be key to understanding potential catalysts for movement in this market.