TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 4:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory for each team. It evaluates whether each team secures a win by a specific number of goals, providing different thresholds for success. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the game as determined in regular time.
The event evaluates multiple outcome scenarios for the Lyon vs Stade Rennais professional Ligue 1 soccer match scheduled for September 19, 2026. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty shootouts. Four distinct primary rules define different winning margins: Lyon must win by more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals, while Stade Rennais must win by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals for their respective markets to resolve to Yes. Each rule operates independently, and the event is strictly informational, with no official affiliation between Kalshi and the governing league or its intellectual property.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market’s pricing is driven by real money being wagered on potential outcomes. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when there's significant public information or a perceived edge. It’s common to see differences in probabilities assigned to various outcomes, as prediction markets can incorporate information that sportsbooks may not immediately factor in.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and place orders, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by news, team performance, and overall betting activity, creating a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism for the Lyon vs Stade Rennais match.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Lyon vs Stade Rennais match, specifically the spread, will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a trusted sports data source, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement of the market. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and the corresponding payouts after the official result is available.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 20, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Lyon or Stade Rennais would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, tactical announcements from either manager, or even weather conditions on match day, could influence traders’ predictions and lead to adjustments in the odds. Significant betting volume itself can also drive price movement, as large orders indicate strong conviction.