TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan
polymarket
kalshi

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan

Volume:
$3,276,732

Daniel Elahi Galan

 - Kalshi

Daniel Elahi Galan - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 8:30 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Daniel Elahi Galan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,295,569
N/A
N/A
$414,587
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$774
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$64
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Marco Trungelliti

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,588,470
N/A
N/A
$677,236
Settled
No
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$390,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether the professional tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Galan at the 2026 ATP Challenger Lyon tournament will be completed. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus probability that the match is completed stands at 100.0%. Resolution is determined by Official ATP Tour statistics from atptour.com and ATP Challenger Lyon event organizer records, with credible reporting consensus applied if official data is unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the scheduled match date of June 10, 2026, to confirm whether play begins and the match reaches completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently require official ATP Challenger statistics as the primary source, apply 50-50 resolution for incomplete matches or cancellations, and resolve match winner only if at least one ball is played.Primary resolution logic: Official ATP Tour statistics (atptour.com) and ATP Challenger Lyon event organizer records; consensus of credible reporting if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.

Core resolution logic:

  • Match winner (Trungelliti vs Galan): Resolves to the player who advances if any ball is played; resolves 50-50 if match is canceled before play, delayed beyond 7 days without play, ends in walkover, or is not completed.
  • Match completion (Yes/No): Resolves Yes only if all games and sets required to determine a winner are completed through normal play; resolves No if match is canceled, not played, delayed beyond 7 days, or ends in any form of forfeit or retirement.
  • Set winners (Set 1, Set 2): Resolves to the player winning that set if the set is completed; resolves 50-50 if the set is not completed or match does not reach that set.
  • Game totals (Set 1, Set 2, Match): Resolves Over if games equal or exceed the threshold; resolves Under otherwise; resolves 50-50 if the relevant set or match is not completed, canceled before play, or delayed beyond 7 days. Tiebreaks count as one game.
  • Set totals (Over/Under 2.5): Resolves Over if 3 or more sets are completed; resolves Under if 2 or fewer sets are completed; resolves 50-50 if match is incomplete, canceled before play, or delayed beyond 7 days. Super tiebreaks count as one set.
  • Set handicaps (Trungelliti -1.5 / Galan -1.5): Resolves to the player if they win by 2 or more sets; otherwise resolves to the opponent; resolves 50-50 if match is incomplete, canceled before play, or delayed beyond 7 days.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Walkover or Withdrawal Before Play: Match winner resolves 50-50. All set and game markets resolve 50-50. Match completion resolves No.
  • Retirement or Default During Match: Match winner resolves to the advancing player. Set and game markets resolve based on completed play; if a set is incomplete, that market resolves 50-50.
  • Cancellation or No Play: All markets resolve 50-50 if match is canceled before any ball is played.
  • Delay Beyond 7 Days: If match is delayed more than 7 days from June 10, 2026 scheduled date without a result, all markets resolve 50-50.
  • Incomplete Match (e.g., Suspended): Match winner and all game/set totals resolve 50-50. Set winner resolves based on completed sets only; if the set in question is incomplete, resolves 50-50.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official publication of final match statistics by ATP Tour or event organizer, or within 2 hours after match conclusion if official statistics are not published; if match is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play, resolution is immediate upon confirmation of cancellation or delay threshold.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Galan in the Lyon, originally scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 11:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Daniel Galan. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Galan' if Daniel Galan advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the winner of the Trungelliti vs Galan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Lyon Round of 16, determined after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket and Kalshi reflect decentralized, crowd-sourced pricing by traders with real money at stake, often capturing sharp consensus faster than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks apply fixed margins and limits to manage risk, while prediction markets operate continuously with dynamic pricing. For the Trungelliti vs Galan match, comparing Polymarket and Kalshi odds to major sportsbook lines reveals whether the crowd sees value the books have missed. Prediction markets typically show tighter spreads and faster reaction to player news, injuries, or surface conditions relevant to Lyon clay-court tennis.

Key catalysts include recent ATP rankings updates, head-to-head records on clay, and performance in lead-up tournaments. Player injuries, illness, or withdrawal announcements will shift odds sharply. Weather conditions at Lyon, court speed, and draw positioning relative to seeding can influence trader sentiment. Social media or press coverage highlighting form, mental state, or coaching changes may trigger repricing on Polymarket and Kalshi. Betting volume spikes often precede major tournaments, and late-match odds typically tighten as the event approaches. Monitor both platforms for divergence signals that may indicate asymmetric information or changing conviction among traders.