TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 6:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Las Vegas Raiders or New Orleans Saints during the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints during the second quarter of play in their game scheduled for September 27, 2026. For any market labeled 'NO Saints wins 2Q by over X points,' the market resolves to Yes only if New Orleans wins that quarter by more than the specified margin. Conversely, markets labeled 'LV Raiders wins 2Q by over X points' resolve to Yes if Las Vegas achieves a victory by exceeding the stated point differential. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these resolutions, regardless of the overall game outcome. The markets cover a range of thresholds from 1.5 to 10.5 points for each team, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance in that specific quarter.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. These differences can arise from varying levels of information or different interpretations of the same data. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Raiders-Saints 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of those trading it. The current price reflects what traders are willing to pay for exposure to this outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual point spread in the second quarter of the Raiders-Saints game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted source. The market will then pay out to contract holders based on whether their predicted spread matches the actual result. It’s important to note that the official game statistics are the final authority for determining the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Raiders or the Saints would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also impact trading activity. Even late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could shift market sentiment. Unexpected shifts in public opinion, as reflected in betting trends, could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.