TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 5:09 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess various scoring thresholds for the first quarter of an upcoming football game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the New Orleans Saints. Each outcome represents a different point total benchmark that determines whether the combined score exceeds that level within the first 15 minutes of play.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams during the first quarter of the designated game. Each outcome corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, with the market settling as 'Yes' if the combined score surpasses that threshold. Only points actually scored during the first quarter count, regardless of any subsequent scoring in later quarters. All markets are independent, meaning each threshold operates under its own resolution criteria without influence from other outcomes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market’s price is determined by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may incorporate unique insights or react more quickly to breaking news. It’s common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available, with this market potentially offering a different perspective on the likely outcome than conventional betting options.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of the total points scored in the first quarter being over or under a certain threshold. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the ‘yes’ outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total points scored in the first quarter of the Raiders-Saints game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data provider. The market will determine whether the total points scored exceeded or fell short of the threshold established by the market’s contract specifications. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout of 100 minus the price they paid.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Raiders or the Saints would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable for high or low scoring, could also impact trading activity. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could shift the price, reflecting new information or a change in sentiment regarding the likely first-quarter total.