TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 5:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will dominate the first quarter of an upcoming football game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the New Orleans Saints. Bettors can choose specific point spreads to gauge the expected margin of victory for either team in that initial segment of play.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints during the first quarter of their scheduled game on September 27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger margins like over 10.5 points, for either team winning the quarter. The outcome is determined exclusively by points scored in the first quarter, with no consideration given to the final game result or any subsequent quarters. All markets are independent, meaning each resolves based on its own threshold regardless of others. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and to balance action, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It's common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available. However, both aim to predict the same outcome – the actual 1st quarter spread of the game – and can be valuable tools for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 1st quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective intelligence of those participating. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 1st quarter spread of the Raiders-Saints game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the league, and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the 1st quarter spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution. It's important to monitor the game and official results as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to and during the game. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Raiders or the Saints would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they affect the passing or running game, could also shift the odds. Even late-breaking news about coaching decisions or team strategies could impact trader sentiment. As the game progresses, live scoring and in-game adjustments will be major catalysts for price changes in this market.